The adage “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity” is everywhere. I’ve seen it on classroom posters, heard it in corporate workshops, and read it in many self-help books. This phrase has bothered me for years. It’s one of those “truthy” statements that feels profound until you pull at the threads.

The quote is widely attributed to the Roman Stoic philosopher Seneca. Well, sorry Mr. Seneca, but I’m going to disagree.

It Assumes Preparation is a Prerequisite#

Not all luck requires preparation. A baby born into a billionaire family didn’t do “pre-birth preparatory work” to secure their inheritance. If you find a $100 bill on the sidewalk during your routine walk to the grocer, your “readiness” didn’t put it there.

The quote implies that luck is earned, but it’s often unearned, unasked for, and unexpected.

It Ignores Bad Luck#

The adage implicitly assumes luck is a positive force, but in reality it’s a spectrum.

A cancer diagnosis, a house destroyed by a tornado, or a freak accident aren’t the result of “bad preparation.” They are instances of randomness. You can be the most prepared person in the world and still be sidelined by a black swan event. To use Seneca’s logic, we would have to imply that victims of misfortune simply weren’t “ready” for a better outcome.

It Glosses Over Systemic Inequality#

There is a hidden assumption that everyone is eventually presented with a “big break.” Unfortunately, opportunity is not distributed equally. While technically anyone born in the U.S. could become President, the statistical reality is tied heavily to one’s starting point.

The Math of Failure#

If success were truly a matter of “preparation meeting opportunity,” we would see a much higher correlation between hard work and success. Instead, the data tells a story of attrition.

Business Failure#

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly 20% of businesses fail in their first year, and a staggering 65% are gone by year ten. Are we to believe that 65% of people who put their life savings and years of effort into a business simply “weren’t prepared”?

Or is it more likely they were met with a “bad luck” event they couldn’t control. When we use Seneca’s logic, we are forced to tell these millions of people that their failure was a personal lack of readiness, rather than the statistical reality of a volatile market.

Creative Failure#

We call creative industries ‘hit-driven’ for a reason. ‘Hits’ are the intersection of talent and timing, and timing is just another word for luck.

• Art: 75% of independent visual artists make less than $10,000 a year. ^[1]
• Music: Only 0.4% of artists earn a living wage from streaming royalties. ^[2]
• Games: Over 50% of indie games released on Steam earned less than $1,000 in total lifetime revenue. The top 0.5% account for 80% of all revenue! ^[3]

To suggest these passionate people “weren’t prepared” is an insult to their craft.

The Real Definition of Luck#

Luck is randomness that affects you. It is a neutral force. It can be a tailwind or a headwind.

Why Does The Quote Persist?#

If the logic of the adage is so flawed, why do we keep repeating it? I think the answer is simple: it gives us the illusion of agency. We want to believe we are the pilots of our lives. It’s comforting to think that if we work hard enough and stay ready we can manifest success. It turns a chaotic, unfair world into a meritocracy.

Why This Matters#

I felt compelled to write this because, while the quote is intended to be inspirational, it has a dark side: it shifts blame.

When we define luck as “preparation meeting opportunity,” the inverse becomes a weapon. It becomes a silencer for those raising their hands about systemic barriers. It creates guilt and shame in the minds of founders and creatives, like a form of gaslighting. It tells us to look at the successful and say they deserved it, and look at the struggling and say they missed it.

Preparation is Still Necessary (But Not a Guarantee)#

Despite my misgivings, this is not a call to nihilism. Success is like a lottery: years of preparatory work are the price of the ticket. If you don’t prepare, you aren’t even in the drawing.

You should absolutely hone your craft and work your hardest, not because it guarantees a win, but because it’s the only way to be eligible if lightning strikes. But we need to stop lying to the people standing in line, telling them that the harder they grip their ticket, the more likely the universe is to pick their number.

Closing Thoughts#

Seneca’s intent was to encourage perseverance. Unfortunately, his adage has morphed into a tool for survivor bias and contributes to the just-world fallacy. ^[4]

For many, “opportunity” is actually a safety net provided by a wealthy family or benefactor, allowing for years of “preparation” that others cannot afford. For others, luck is lightning in a bottle, and it is doubtful that even the “survivors” could repeat their success if they had to restart from zero.

It is far more honest and empathetic to acknowledge luck for what it is: a random force of nature. We can control our effort, but we can’t control the wind.